Highlights

• • Agafonov is the stronger player by experience and record, but not overwhelmingly so.
• • Current odds require Agafonov to be ~86% to be fair; we estimate ~78%.

Pros

• + Agafonov has a clear edge in experience and overall record on hard courts.
• + Both players have recent match activity at Maanshan, so no obvious rust factor.

Cons

• - Alberto Lim's small sample size creates outcome volatility; upsets are plausible.
• - No clear injury or fitness data to justify the heavy market favoritism to this degree.

Details

We estimate Egor Agafonov is the clear favorite based on a larger sample size and better overall win-loss record on hard courts versus Alberto Lim, but the market price (away 1.165) implies ~85.9% win probability which exceeds our assessed true probability. Alberto Lim has a very small sample (6 matches, 3-3) and mixed results on hard; Egor has played many more matches (53, 31-22) and also recent hard-court activity, so we give Egor the edge but not to the extent the book implies. Using a conservative true-win probability for Agafonov of 78.0%, the fair decimal is ~1.282 — meaning the current market price of 1.165 offers negative expected value. Given that, we do not recommend backing either player at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Experience and larger match sample favor Egor Agafonov (53 matches vs 6)
• • Both players have recent results in Maanshan on hard court, but form is inconsistent for both
• • Small-sample uncertainty around Alberto Lim increases variance and reduces confidence in large underdog value