Highlights

• • Implied away probability from odds: ~36%; our estimate: 40%
• • Positive EV at current odds: +0.10 (10% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Current odds (2.75) are above our minimum fair odds (2.50) for the away player
• + Clear quantitative edge based on conservative probability assumptions

Cons

• - Recommendation is based on limited information and conservative assumptions
• - Tennis outcomes have high variance; hidden factors (surface/injury) could invalidate estimate

Details

We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we use conservative, model-style assumptions. The market prices Alec Fritzinger as a strong favorite (home 1.40 implied ~71%), and Charles Frey at 2.75 (implied ~36%). After accounting for bookmaker margin and adopting a cautious estimate that the favorite's true win probability is closer to 60% (home 0.60 / away 0.40), the away price represents value. Our estimated 40% win chance for the away player requires minimum fair odds of 2.50; the current 2.75 exceeds that threshold, producing positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.40 * 2.75 - 1 = +0.10 (10% ROI). We designate risk as medium because the recommendation is based on assumptions in the absence of match-specific data.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available (form, surface, injuries, H2H)
• • Market implied away probability (~36%) is below our conservative estimated 40%
• • Minimum fair odds for our estimate are 2.50; current 2.75 offers margin
• • Recommendation relies on a conservative 60/40 true-probability split favoring the listed favorite
• • Tennis match variance can swing outcomes; absence of information raises uncertainty