Alejandro Tabilo vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away player Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 2.21; our model estimates a 57% win chance producing ~26% expected ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies only ~45% for Cerundolo while we estimate ~57%
- • Surface and broader form strongly favor Cerundolo over Tabilo
Pros
- + Clear surface and form advantage for Cerundolo
- + Current odds (2.21) offer a large positive EV vs our probability
Cons
- - No H2H provided — matchups on grass can produce variance
- - Tabilo could upset if his grass game is underestimated or conditions favor his style
Details
We see value on Juan Manuel Cerundolo at the current away price (2.21). The market implies Cerundolo's win probability at ~45.2% (1/2.21), but our assessment places his true chance materially higher given three core points: (1) Cerundolo's stronger overall record (56-30 vs Tabilo's 14-25) and larger recent match sample suggesting more consistent form; (2) Cerundolo has documented grass experience while Tabilo's profile shows little/no grass background, creating a surface advantage for Cerundolo; (3) Tabilo's poor win rate and recent straight-set losses at higher-level events suggest limited upside on grass. Adjusting for a modest bookmaker margin (~4%), we estimate Cerundolo's true win probability at 57.0%. At that probability EV = 0.57 * 2.21 - 1 = 0.260 (26.0% ROI on a 1-unit stake), which is positive and sizable enough to recommend a back of the away player at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Cerundolo's superior overall win-loss record and larger recent match sample
- • Cerundolo has recorded play on grass; Tabilo shows limited grass exposure
- • Market-implied probability (45.2%) appears to underprice Cerundolo relative to form and surface edge