Highlights

• • Alejandro's larger match sample and clay experience support a higher true win probability
• • Current market price (1.877) exceeds our min required odds (1.786) for value

Pros

• + Better-established record and more matches on clay, reducing variance in our estimate
• + Current decimal odds (1.877) offer positive expected value versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited specific recent-form and head-to-head details in the provided research
• - Small margins of value — market is tight and a swing in assessment would remove the edge

Details

We prefer Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa at the current price (1.877) because his larger match sample (54 matches, 31-23) and slightly superior win rate on clay suggest he is the more reliable clay-court performer versus Pedro Rodenas (11 matches, 6-5). The market prices both players very closely (implied 53.3% home, 54.6% away), but adjusting for sample size, clay experience, and consistency we estimate Alejandro's true win probability at 56.0%, which makes 1.877 a value price (EV positive). There is limited head-to-head and injury information, so we remain cautious, but the available data points to Alejandro being the better probability proposition at these odds.

Key factors

• • Alejandro has a larger sample size and a higher overall win rate (31-23 over 54 matches) compared with Pedro (6-5 over 11 matches)
• • Both players have clay experience, but Alejandro's consistency on clay and recent activity suggest a slight edge
• • Market is tightly priced; Alejandro's implied break-even odds (1.786) are shorter than the offered 1.877, creating positive EV