Highlights

• • Bookmaker implied probability (home 1.04) = 96.15%
• • Our estimated true probability = 92%, EV at 1.04 = -4.3%

Pros

• + Ciric has more recorded pro matches and a winning record (10-6) in the provided data
• + Market consensus strongly favors Ciric, indicating clear match-up expectation

Cons

• - Price of 1.04 leaves virtually no margin for estimation error — requires >96.15% true win chance
• - Insufficient information on opponent, surface specifics, and recent form to justify >96% confidence

Details

We compare the bookmaker prices to our estimated win probability. The market makes Aleksa Ciric an overwhelming favorite at 1.04 (implied 96.15%). Based on Ciric's limited pro sample (16 matches, 10-6) and the sparse recent-match data provided — with no information on opponent Theo Coats, injuries, or clear surface advantage — we estimate Ciric's true win probability at ~92.0%. That is materially below the implied 96.15% required to make a 1.04 price profitable. At our estimate the EV on the 1.04 price is negative (EV = 0.92 * 1.04 - 1 = -0.043), so there is no value in betting the favorite. The away price (11.0, implied ~9.09%) would require Ciric's true win probability to be below ~9.09% to be valuable, which is implausible given the available data. Given the heavy market skew and limited opponent info, we do not recommend taking either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies 96.15% for the home (1.04) which is above our 92% estimate
• • Aleksa Ciric has a very small pro sample (16 matches) making probability estimates uncertain
• • No usable information provided on opponent Theo Coats, injuries, or head-to-head