Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Ciric: 97.1% (1.03); our estimate: 88%
• • EV at current price is negative (~-9.4% on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Ciric has a winning record (10-6) and experience on clay and hard courts
• + Market confidence is very high, which reflects perceived mismatch

Cons

• - Market odds (1.03) leave virtually no juice for value — required win rate >97%
• - Opponent data is missing and small sample size of Ciric's career raises uncertainty

Details

We estimate Aleksa Ciric is the clear favorite based on a 10-6 record and recent play on clay/hard, but the market price (1.03) implies ~97.1% chance to win. Our assessment assigns Ciric a true win probability of ~88% given limited career sample size, mixed recent results, and absence of reliable information on Mitchell Deames. At 1.03 the bet has negative expected value: EV = 0.88 * 1.03 - 1 = -0.094, so there is no value to back the heavy favorite. Conversely the away price of 12.0 implies ~8.3% which is too low relative to our assessment of Deames (we lack evidence to justify >8.3%), so we do not recommend the underdog either. We therefore advise no bet — the market is overconfident and the available prices do not offer positive expected value relative to our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Limited career sample (16 matches) increases estimation uncertainty
• • Recent mixed results—no sustained dominant form to justify 97% market price
• • No usable information on Mitchell Deames to justify extreme underdog pricing