Highlights

• • Ciric: stronger recent win-rate and form edge
• • Current price (1.29) implies ~77.5% — above our 70% estimate

Pros

• + Clearer recent performance advantage for Ciric
• + Both players have experience on clay and hard, reducing a surface-driven upset probability

Cons

• - Small career samples and limited head-to-head info increase model uncertainty
• - Market likely factors additional information not present in our dataset, which could tighten true probability

Details

We estimate Aleksa Ciric is the stronger player on paper — better recent win rate (10-6 vs 10-21) and more credible recent form compared with Raffaello Papajcik’s extended run of losses. The market price of 1.29 implies a 77.5% chance for Ciric, but the available data (small samples, mixed surfaces, limited direct form edge) supports a more conservative true win probability around 70%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.429 decimal. Since the offered 1.29 is shorter than our min required odds, it represents negative expected value and we do not recommend backing the favorite here.

Key factors

• • Ciric has a materially better recent win-loss record (10-6) vs Papajcik (10-21)
• • Market-implied probability (77.5%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (70%)
• • Limited sample sizes and mixed-surface history increase uncertainty despite the form gap