Highlights

• • Home implied market probability ~65.4% vs our 62% estimate
• • EV at current home odds is approximately -0.051 (loss of ~5.1% per unit staked)

Pros

• + We use conservative assumptions to avoid overbetting on incomplete information
• + Clear threshold provided: home would require odds ≥1.613 to be +EV per our estimate

Cons

• - Lack of surface/form/injury data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If our conservative probability underestimates the favourite, we may miss a legitimate edge

Details

We compared the quoted market prices (home 1.53, away 2.38) against a conservative estimated win probability for the home favourite. With no external research available, we assume modest home-court benefit but also increased variance typical of lower-tier events; this leads us to estimate Aleksandar Mihailovic's true win probability at ~62%. The market-implied probability for the home price is ~65.4% (1/1.53), which is higher than our estimate, so the 1.53 quote offers negative expected value against our projection. Conversely, the away price (2.38) implies a ~42.0% chance, but our conservative estimate for the away player is ~38%, which likewise produces negative EV at 2.38. Given both sides appear overpriced by the market relative to our conservative probabilities, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external match-level data available; we apply conservative priors
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈65.4%) exceeds our estimate (62%) -> negative EV on favourite
• • Lower-tier event dynamics increase variance; small edges are unreliable without extra info