Aleksandar Vukic vs Raphael Collignon
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market price for Collignon (1.26) overstates his edge relative to the evidence; our estimate (72%) requires ~1.389 to be +EV, so we recommend no bet at current odds.
Highlights
- • Collignon is the clear favorite in form and record
- • Current price (1.26) does not offer value versus our 72% estimate
Pros
- + Collignon's superior win-loss record and recent wins indicate genuine favoritism
- + Both players are active on comparable surfaces so form comparison is meaningful
Cons
- - Market is overpriced for the favorite — required probability to justify 1.26 is >79%
- - No H2H or injury detail to reduce uncertainty; estimates remain moderately uncertain
Details
We find the market heavily favors Raphael Collignon at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%). From the provided profiles Collignon has a clearly better season record (41-24 vs 28-33) and stronger recent results, but the research does not justify a >79% true win probability given both players' activity across the same surfaces and no injury/H2H information. We estimate Collignon's true win probability at ~72%, which implies minimum fair decimal odds of ~1.389. At the available price of 1.26 the bet is negative EV (EV ≈ -0.093), so we do not recommend backing either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Season records favor Collignon (41-24 vs 28-33)
- • Both players have experience on hard/grass/clay—no strong surface edge in the research
- • No injury reports or H2H data provided, increasing uncertainty