Aleksandar Mihailovic vs Ali Yazdani

Highlights

• • Yazdani: higher experience and superior overall record
• • Current odds (1.298) slightly undervalue Yazdani relative to our estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
• + Stronger sample size and proven clay competence

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈3.8% ROI) — outcome still vulnerable to variance
• - Limited direct matchup/H2H data and some recent losses for both players

Details

We assess clear value on Ali Yazdani at the current decimal price. Yazdani has a substantially larger match sample (40 matches, 25-15) and consistent play on clay compared with Aleksandar Mihailovic's very small sample (4 matches, 1-3). Both players have recent activity at Kursumlijska Banja, but Yazdani's experience and overall win rate on tour give him a meaningful edge. The market price of 1.298 implies a win probability of ~77.0%; we estimate Yazdani's true win probability at roughly 80.0% based on experience, surface familiarity, and head-to-venue context — producing a positive expected value. Accounting for market margin, the edge is modest but positive: min required odds for our estimate are 1.250, and the offered 1.298 yields an EV of ~0.038 per unit staked.

Key factors

• • Ali Yazdani has much larger match sample and better win-loss record (25-15 vs 1-3)
• • Both players have recent matches at Kursumlijska Banja (surface familiarity), but Yazdani's experience favors him
• • Market-implied probability (77%) is slightly lower than our estimated true probability (80%), creating positive EV