Highlights

• • Both players have virtually identical records and recent data in the research
• • Away at 2.01 exceeds our fair odds threshold, giving a modest edge

Pros

• + Market overprices the home favorite relative to the available evidence
• + Small but positive EV at commonly available price (2.01)

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 2.5%), sensitive to small errors in the probability estimate
• - Research is limited and missing granular form, H2H, and surface-specific breakdowns

Details

We view this as a symmetry matchup: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience in the available profiles, and there is no clear form or injury edge in the research. The market prices the home player at 1.73 (implied 57.8%) while the away player is 2.01 (implied 49.8%); given the lack of distinguishing information and the book's margin, we estimate the true win probability for the away player is about 51%. At that probability the required fair odds are ~1.961 and the offered 2.01 contains a small positive edge. We therefore recommend the away side as a modest value play while noting the information set is limited and the edge is small.

Key factors

• • Profiles show nearly identical career records and surface experience (both 10-21)
• • Market favoritism to home (1.73) seems stronger than available evidence supports
• • Offered away odds (2.01) exceed our fair threshold (~1.961) producing a small positive edge