Highlights

• • Market implies ~91.7% win probability for the favorite
• • At our conservative 85% estimate the bet is about -7.35% EV

Pros

• + Bookmakers favor the expected winner strongly — low variance outcome likely
• + If new information emerges showing >91.7% chance, value could appear

Cons

• - Current odds are too short to offer positive expected value versus our conservative estimate
• - No match-specific data available (surface, injuries, form), increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (away 1.09) to a conservative estimated win probability. The market-implied probability for Ewa Czapulak at 1.09 is ~91.7%, but with no external data on surface, form, injuries, or head-to-head we use a conservative estimated true probability of 85% for the favorite. At that estimate the expected value of backing the favorite at 1.09 is negative (EV = 0.85 * 1.09 - 1 = -0.0735, about -7.35% ROI). Given the extremely compressed market price and high uncertainty (no match-specific information), there is no positive-value bet at the quoted odds. To obtain positive EV we would need substantially longer odds (minimum decimal ~1.176). We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability at 1.09 is ~91.7%, implying near-certainty
• • No external data on surface, injuries, recent form, or H2H — we apply a conservative prior
• • Our conservative estimated probability (85%) is well below the market-implied level
• • Positive EV would require odds >= 1.176 for our estimate