Alen Mujakic vs Fermin Tenti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value available at current prices; market overweights home slightly relative to a conservative true probability estimate (52% for Mujakic).
Highlights
- • Mujakic has a small edge on paper but not large enough to justify 1.775 market price
- • Both players show poor recent form and small sample career records, increasing uncertainty
Pros
- + Clear, conservative probability model shows negative ROI at current home price
- + Market margin leaves room for value but not at these listed odds
Cons
- - Data sample is small and noisy — actual matchup dynamics could deviate
- - No H2H or injury info provided that might materially shift probabilities
Details
We estimate this is a close matchup with Alen Mujakic slightly favored based on marginally better career win rate and similar clay experience, but the market prices (home 1.775 implied ~56.3%) appear overstated versus realistic expectations. Using a conservative true-win probability for Mujakic of 52% (reflecting limited sample sizes and both players' poor recent form), the fair decimal price would be ~1.923. At the current home price of 1.775 the expected ROI is negative (EV = 0.52 * 1.775 - 1 = -0.077). The away price (1.909) likewise does not offer value versus a realistic Tenti probability under these assumptions. Given the limited, noisy data and both players' losing records, no side offers positive expected value at the listed prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have losing records on limited match samples; Mujakic (7-10) is marginally stronger than Tenti (6-12)
- • Surface: match on clay — both have clay experience but no clear clay-specialist edge for either player
- • Market margin: implied probabilities (home 56.3%) appear richer than justified given form and small sample sizes