Highlights

• • Current market probability for Mujakic (≈9.5%) appears understated
• • At our estimated 15% chance, the 10.5 price is profitable

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated fair odds
• + Positive expected value (0.575) per unit staked at current price

Cons

• - High uncertainty from small sample sizes and recent Mujakic losses
• - Felix Gill's stronger record and form make the outcome still likely against the underdog

Details

We find clear value on the home underdog at 10.5. The market implies Alen Mujakic has only ~9.5% chance (1/10.5) while our assessment, based on the provided career records and surface context, is materially higher. Mujakic has a limited sample (7-10 career record) but is not a zero-probability opponent; Felix Gill's stronger 24-11 record and recent wins make him the favorite, but the market pricing (away 1.04 -> ~96% implied) overstates Gill's certainty to win. Given both players have clay experience and Mujakic's non-negligible past win rate, we estimate Mujakic's true win probability at 15%, which produces positive EV at 10.5. Using that estimate, EV = 0.15*10.5 - 1 = +0.575 (57.5% ROI). We prefer the underdog only because the quoted price (10.5) is far above the minimum fair decimal odds implied by our probability (6.667). We acknowledge uncertainty from small sample sizes and recent losses by Mujakic, so this is a high-risk, positive-expected-value play under the tiered odds strategy.

Key factors

• • Market implies Mujakic ~9.5% chance (10.5) which we believe is too low
• • Felix Gill has stronger overall record (24-11) but not a near-certain outcome on clay
• • Small sample sizes and recent form create uncertainty but still support >9.5% chance for Mujakic