Highlights

• • Lopez: 20-15 across more events vs Bellifemine 5-14
• • Current market (1.069) implies a higher probability than our estimate, so no value

Pros

• + Lopez has larger match sample and better recent results
• + No reported injuries in the provided research

Cons

• - Neither player has documented grass form in the supplied data, adding model uncertainty
• - Market has pushed odds extremely short, leaving little to no margin for error

Details

We examined form, sample sizes and surface. Imanol Lopez Morillo is a clear favorite in the research: substantially more matches (35 vs 19) and a stronger win–loss record (20-15 vs 5-14). Neither player has a clear grass résumé in the provided data, so surface uncertainty reduces our confidence in any extreme edge. The market price (Away 1.069, implied ~93.5%) is shorter than our conservative estimated true win probability for Lopez (92%), so there is no positive expected value at current prices. Given the heavy market favoritism and limited grass evidence, we prefer to pass rather than back Lopez at 1.069.

Key factors

• • Imanol Lopez Morillo has a materially better overall record and more matches played
• • Both players lack documented grass results in the provided data, increasing uncertainty on surface impact
• • Market implies >93% for Lopez; our conservative true estimate (~92%) does not justify that short price