Highlights

• • Simion's long career and higher win rate suggest solidity on this level.
• • Current odds (1.826) imply ~54.8% while we estimate ~60%, producing ~9.6% ROI.

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-play advantage for Simion
• + Current price offers positive expected value versus our probability model

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses, introducing form uncertainty
• - Ibragimova's limited sample could produce unpredictable upsets on the day

Details

We view value on Oana Georgeta Simion (away). The market decimals (Home 1.862 / Away 1.826) imply roughly 54-55% for Simion, but based on the research Simion's vast experience (1066 matches, winning ~52% career) and proven competence on all surfaces (including clay) make her considerably more likely than the market implies against a much less experienced opponent (Ibragimova: 32 matches, 10-22). Both players show recent losses, but the experience gap and historical consistency favor Simion; at a conservative estimated true win probability of 60%, the current away price (1.826) yields positive expected value (EV ≈ 0.096 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend the away side because the market price offers a margin above our required fair odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Simion has 1066 matches vs Ibragimova's 32
• • Career winning percentage and surface versatility favor Simion
• • Market-implied probability (≈54.8%) is lower than our estimated true probability (60%)