Alevtina Ibragimova vs Oana Georgeta Simion
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting the away (Oana Georgeta Simion). Her experience and broader proven record make 1.826 a value price relative to our conservative 60% win probability.
Highlights
- • Simion's long career and higher win rate suggest solidity on this level.
- • Current odds (1.826) imply ~54.8% while we estimate ~60%, producing ~9.6% ROI.
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-play advantage for Simion
- + Current price offers positive expected value versus our probability model
Cons
- - Both players have recent losses, introducing form uncertainty
- - Ibragimova's limited sample could produce unpredictable upsets on the day
Details
We view value on Oana Georgeta Simion (away). The market decimals (Home 1.862 / Away 1.826) imply roughly 54-55% for Simion, but based on the research Simion's vast experience (1066 matches, winning ~52% career) and proven competence on all surfaces (including clay) make her considerably more likely than the market implies against a much less experienced opponent (Ibragimova: 32 matches, 10-22). Both players show recent losses, but the experience gap and historical consistency favor Simion; at a conservative estimated true win probability of 60%, the current away price (1.826) yields positive expected value (EV ≈ 0.096 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend the away side because the market price offers a margin above our required fair odds.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Simion has 1066 matches vs Ibragimova's 32
- • Career winning percentage and surface versatility favor Simion
- • Market-implied probability (≈54.8%) is lower than our estimated true probability (60%)