Alex Bulte vs Vito Tonejc

Highlights

• • Vito priced as a strong favorite (1.52) despite an 8-7 career record
• • Underdog Alex at 2.38 offers positive EV under conservative probability estimates

Pros

• + Current odds (2.38) exceed our min fair odds (2.174), producing positive expected value
• + Market appears to overprice Vito given documented inconsistency

Cons

• - Sparse information on Alex Bulte increases model uncertainty
• - Surface, match conditions, and H2H data are not provided — higher variance outcome risk

Details

We compare the market pricing (Alex Bulte 2.38, Vito Tonejc 1.52) to our assessment of true win likelihood. The market implies Vito ~65.8% and Alex ~42.0% (book margin ~7.8%). Research shows Vito has a short, inconsistent record (8-7) with mixed recent results, which makes a ~66% market probability look generous. There is no reliable public profile on Alex in the provided research, creating information asymmetry but also the opportunity that the market is overstating Vito. Conservatively, we estimate Alex's true win probability at 46%, which requires minimum decimal odds of 2.174 to be fair. At the quoted 2.38 the bet on Alex yields positive expected value (EV = 0.095 per unit). We prefer the home side only because the implied price for Vito is too short relative to his documented inconsistency and the available uncertainty about Alex. We note significant uncertainty due to sparse data and unknown surface/venue impacts, so the recommendation is a value-seeking, cautious play rather than a low-risk certainty.

Key factors

• • Vito Tonejc has a short, inconsistent record (8-7) which does not clearly justify a ~66% market probability
• • Market shows a sizable favorite (Vito) leading to a bookmaker margin ~7.8%, creating potential value on the underdog
• • Information gap on Alex Bulte and unknown surface/venue increases uncertainty but also the chance market mispricing