Alex Bulte vs Youcef Rihane
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the home player at 2.48 based on a conservative 42% win estimate. The edge is modest and driven by market pricing that appears to overstate the away favorite.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~40.3% for home; we estimate 42% — small edge
- • Minimum fair odds required: 2.381; current odds 2.48 → positive EV
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely available odds
- + Conservative probability estimate reduces likelihood of overreach
Cons
- - Very limited information (surface, injuries, form, H2H unknown) increases variance
- - Edge is small (~4.2% ROI) and can be eroded by stale or outlier prices
Details
We see the market strongly favors the away player at 1.49 (implied away win ~67%), leaving the home player priced at 2.48 (implied home win ~40.3%). With no external data on surface, injuries, form, or H2H, we adopt a conservative estimate that this is a closer matchup than the market implies and assign Alex Bulte a 42% true win probability. At p=0.42 the fair decimal price is 1/0.42 = 2.381; the available 2.48 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.42 * 2.48 - 1 = 0.0416 (≈4.2% ROI). Given the limited information, the edge is small but present, so we recommend the home side only because current market odds exceed our minimum required price.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability: home 40.3% vs our conservative estimate 42%
- • No available data on surface, form, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty
- • Current home price (2.48) exceeds our fair threshold (2.381), producing a small positive edge