Alex Huszar vs Neil Oberleitner

Highlights

• • Huge favorite price on Oberleitner creates exploitable underdog odds
• • Limited grass evidence for Oberleitner and qualifier variance support a >10% chance for Huszar

Pros

• + Significant margin between required fair odds (8.333) and available odds (10.31)
• + Conservative probability estimate still yields meaningful positive EV

Cons

• - Limited specific data on Alex Huszar increases uncertainty around the probability estimate
• - Underdogs in qualifiers remain high variance — outcome volatility is high

Details

We see a very large market gap: the away moneyline on Neil Oberleitner implies ~95% win probability (decimal 1.049), which looks overstated given the available information. Oberleitner's career profile shows most matches on clay/hard and a mixed recent record, suggesting limited documented grass form and some vulnerability; qualifiers and grass matches typically have more variance and can favor underdogs. With minimal public information on Alex Huszar but a deep underdog price (10.31), a modest true win probability for Huszar already produces positive expected value. Comparing our estimated true probability (12%) to the market price, the required fair odds (≈8.333) are much shorter than the current 10.31, giving positive EV at these books. We therefore recommend the home side only because the quoted price offers value versus our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Oberleitner (≈95%) appears overstated relative to documented form
• • Oberleitner's career matches recorded primarily on clay/hard — limited grass evidence raises upset potential
• • Qualifying matches on grass tend to have higher variance; big underdog odds (10.31) can be exploitable