Alex Marti Pujolras vs Stefan Palosi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate Alex wins ~62% of the time but the 1.53 market price implies ~65.4% — no value on either side at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.53) = 65.36%; our estimate = 62% → no value
- • Away implied probability (2.35) = 42.55%; our estimate for away ≈ 38% → no value
Pros
- + Alex has a small statistical edge in career record and surface familiarity
- + Both players' recent activity indicates match fitness
Cons
- - Market price for Alex is too short to offer positive expected value
- - Stefan would need a substantially higher chance than our estimate to be a value bet
Details
We estimate Alex Marti Pujolras is the stronger probability here based on a marginally better career win-rate (34-26 vs 25-23) and both players having clay experience. We set Alex's true win probability at 62% (0.62) after weighing overall records and recent mixed form for both. The current home moneyline of 1.53 implies a required win probability of 65.36% to break even (1/1.53 = 0.6536), so the price is too short for value. The away price (2.35, implied 42.55%) is also not attractive given our estimate for Stefan of ~38% — it would require a materially higher true chance to justify backing the upset. Because neither side offers positive expected value at current market prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Alex has a slightly better career win-loss record (34-26 vs 25-23)
- • Both players have recent matches on clay and hard courts; form is mixed for both
- • Current market prices (1.53 / 2.35) do not offer positive EV versus our estimated probabilities