Highlights

• • Market implies ~75% for Rybakov; our model estimates ~82%
• • Required break-even odds are ~1.220, current price 1.33 provides positive EV

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-win differential in favor of Rybakov
• + Both recent activity and surface history favour the home player, reducing matchup risk

Cons

• - Kwiatkowski's small sample size creates higher variance—underdogs can still upset in single matches
• - Research data shows limited recent-match detail and no head-to-head, increasing uncertainty

Details

We assess clear value on Alex Rybakov at the current moneyline. The market price 1.33 implies an implied win probability of ~75.2%, while Rybakov's superior season-long sample (54-26) and heavy hard-court activity versus Kwiatkowski's extremely limited match volume (3 matches, 0-2) point to a materially higher true win probability. Conservatively estimating Rybakov's win chance at 82% yields a positive expected value versus the offered odds (EV = 0.82*1.33 - 1 = +0.091). The minimum decimal price to break even on our forecast is 1.220, so current prices (1.33) contain margin in our favour. We note some uncertainty from limited contemporary head-to-head data and variability in short windows of form, so the edge is significant but not immune to variance.

Key factors

• • Substantial experience and stronger season record for Rybakov (54-26) versus Kwiatkowski's tiny sample (3 matches, 0-2)
• • Both players recent activity on hard courts favors the more established hard-court performer
• • Market-implied probability (≈75.2%) is below our conservative true-probability estimate (82%), producing value