Alex De Minaur vs Raphael Collignon
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favorite's price (1.06) requires >94.3% win chance to be profitable but our estimate is ~90%, producing negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market strongly favors De Minaur (1.06 implied 94.3%)
- • Our conservative true-win estimate (90%) produces negative EV at current price
Pros
- + De Minaur is the clear market favorite and likely the stronger player based on provided summaries
- + No reported fitness issues in the supplied data supporting a lower probability for De Minaur
Cons
- - Favorite pricing is too short to contain value unless we assign an exceptionally high win probability (>94.3%)
- - Provided research does not include decisive indicators (rank, H2H, strong surface edge) to justify backing the market price
Details
We compare the bookmaker pricing (De Minaur 1.06, Collignon 9.0) to our model of likely outcomes. The market implies De Minaur wins with probability 94.34% (1/1.06). Based on the supplied performance summaries — both players have similar season match volumes and recent US Open results, with De Minaur the clearer favorite but not overwhelmingly so in the provided data — we estimate De Minaur's true win probability at 90.0%. To be +EV at the current De Minaur price of 1.06 the true win probability would need to exceed 94.34%; it does not by our estimate. EV at the current De Minaur price (using odds 1.06) is 0.90*1.06 - 1 = -0.046 (negative), so no value exists on the favorite. The away price (9.0) implies ~11.11% win probability; using a complementary estimate (10.0%) also yields negative EV for Collignon. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for De Minaur (94.34%) exceeds our estimated true probability (90%)
- • Both players have comparable recent match volume and mixed US Open results in the supplied data
- • No injury or surface advantage information in the provided research to justify >94% edge