Alex Huszar vs Neil Oberleitner
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on either side; Oberleitner is overpriced by the market at 1.01 relative to a realistic win probability (~85%), producing a negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (1.01) ≈ 99.0%, which we consider unrealistic
- • Break-even (min) price for our estimate is ~1.176; current price is far shorter
Pros
- + Oberleitner has a positive career record (39-31), indicating he is the stronger player on paper
- + If additional information (opponent injury/withdrawal) emerges, market could be correct
Cons
- - Current bookmaker price (1.01) offers no EV unless our win probability is essentially certain (>99%)
- - No information on Alex Huszar prevents confirmation that Oberleitner is an automatic near-lock
Details
We view the market moneyline (Away 1.01) as drastically overstating the certainty of an Oberleitner win. The implied probability at 1.01 is ~99.0%, while Oberleitner's available profile (39-31 career, mixed recent results) supports a far lower win probability for this matchup given the absence of any H2H, injury, or dominant-form evidence. Using a conservative estimated win probability of 85% for Oberleitner yields EV = 0.85*1.01 - 1 = -0.142 (negative), so there is no value at current prices. To find value we would need a decimal price >= 1.176 (1 / 0.85). We therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~99.0% win probability for Oberleitner at 1.01 — highly implausible given the data
- • Oberleitner has a solid but not overwhelming 39-31 career record and recent mixed results
- • No data provided on Alex Huszar or any factors (injury/H2H) that would justify near-certainty