Highlights

• • Market implied probability for Tabacco: 29.85%; our estimate: 39.12%
• • Required decimal odds to break even on our estimate: 2.556; current price 3.35 > required

Pros

• + Clear margin between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + Both players favor clay, reducing surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Giorgio Tabacco has a small sample size (23 matches) increasing variance
• - Alex Martinez has more matches and slightly better recent form, which could tighten the gap

Details

We estimate true probability by comparing career win rates and adjusting for similar surface profiles: Alex Martinez 26/48 (54.17%) vs Giorgio Tabacco 8/23 (34.78%) which converts to a head-to-head probability for Tabacco of 0.391 when normalized (0.3478 / (0.5417+0.3478)). The market gives Tabacco decimal 3.35 (implied 29.85%). At our estimated 39.12% chance, backing Tabacco at 3.35 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.39124 * 3.35 - 1 = +0.3107 (≈31.1% ROI). Key caveats: Giorgio's sample size is small and his recent form is mixed, while Alex has more matches and slightly better recent results; we therefore apply a conservative normalization rather than relying on raw win-rates or the market price. Given those adjustments, the away price contains clear value versus the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate: Alex 54.17% vs Giorgio 34.78%
• • Both players commonly play on clay — surface matchup is neutral
• • Market implies Tabacco ~29.85% vs our estimate ~39.12% (value gap)