Alex Molcan vs Adria Soriano Barrera
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Molcan is a clear favorite but the market price (1.37) is slightly too short versus our 70% win probability, producing a small negative EV.
Highlights
- • Molcan favoured with implied probability ~73% at 1.37
- • We estimate Molcan true probability ~70% => required odds ≥1.429 for +EV
Pros
- + Molcan has the stronger season win-rate and recent hard-court form
- + Both players play similar surfaces so matchup is reasonably comparable
Cons
- - Edge is modest; Barrera's record and form reduce the gap
- - No head-to-head or injury details provided to justify a larger probability gap
Details
We compared the market price (Molcan 1.37 => implied ~73.0%) to our assessment based on the provided profiles. Molcan shows a stronger overall win rate (41-14, ~75%) versus Barrera (44-22, ~67%) and recent results favor Molcan on hard courts, but the edge is modest given Barrera's solid record and lack of H2H or injury detail. We estimate Molcan's true win probability at ~70%, which requires minimum decimal odds of ~1.429 to be +EV. At the current best-market price of 1.37 the bet is negative expected value (EV ≈ -4.1%), so we do not recommend backing either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Molcan higher overall win rate (41-14) compared to Barrera (44-22)
- • Both players have recent activity on hard courts; Molcan's recent wins suggest good form
- • Market implies ~73% for Molcan; our assessed probability (70%) does not justify current price