Alex Molcan vs Nicolas Mejia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite price (Molcan 1.34) already reflects his true win probability, leaving a negligible negative EV.
Highlights
- • Molcan has a strong career win rate (≈74.5%).
- • Current odds (1.34) leave no meaningful edge — implied and estimated probabilities nearly match.
Pros
- + Clear favorite with superior win-loss record
- + Both players have experience on hard courts, so surface is not a strong unknown
Cons
- - Market price closely matches our estimated probability, so no positive EV
- - Limited additional information (no H2H, no confirmed injuries) to justify moving off the market
Details
We estimate Alex Molcan is the stronger player based on career win rate (41-14) versus Nicolas Mejia (37-33) and comparable comfort on hard courts, but the market price (Molcan 1.34) already implies ~74.6% win probability. Our estimated true win probability for Molcan is ~74.5%, essentially in line with the market-implied probability, producing a tiny negative expected value at the quoted 1.34 price. Given the very small margin and limited additional edges (no H2H information, no clear injury or surface advantage from the provided data), there is no actionable value to recommend a bet at current moneyline prices.
Key factors
- • Molcan's career win rate (41-14) implies ~74.5% baseline win probability
- • Mejia has more matches but a significantly lower win rate (37-33), suggesting an underdog profile
- • Market-implied probability at 1.34 (~74.6%) is essentially equal to our estimate, leaving no positive edge