Alex Rybakov vs Trevor Svajda
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Alex Rybakov at 2.30 — our 47% estimated win probability yields about an 8.1% edge versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Rybakov's estimated probability (47%) exceeds market-implied probability (43.5%) at 2.30.
- • Svajda would need >63.7% true win probability to be +EV at 1.57; research does not support that level.
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available price (2.30).
- + Both players are on hard courts where career results are comparable; market may be over-favoring Svajda.
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head and contextual details increase uncertainty.
- - Rybakov's recent match activity could indicate fatigue as well as match sharpness — outcome sensitivity is elevated.
Details
We compare market prices (Rybakov 2.30 implied 43.5% / Svajda 1.57 implied 63.7%) to our read of the matchup. Both players have similar career win rates on hard courts and limited contrasting evidence in the research, but Rybakov's larger match sample and recent competitive matches at Winston-Salem suggest a true chance somewhat higher than the market gives him. We estimate Rybakov's true probability at 47.0%, which is above the market-implied 43.5% for the 2.30 price, producing positive expected value. Svajda is favoured by the market and would require a >63.7% true win probability to be +EV at 1.57; we do not see evidence to support that high a probability. Given the available data (surface parity, similar career records, Rybakov's recent match sharpness vs possible fatigue), the 2.30 price on Rybakov represents value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities (Rybakov 43.5% vs Svajda 63.7%)
- • Similar career win rates on hard courts between the two players
- • Rybakov's larger season sample and recent match activity at Winston-Salem
- • No clear injury information; surface is neutral (hard) for both