Alexa Karatancheva vs Petra Konjikusic

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Petra: ~93.5% (1/1.07)
• • Our estimated chance for Alexa: 35% → minimum fair odds 2.857, current 8.0 offers heavy value

Pros

• + Large gap between market price and our estimated true probability creates substantial positive EV
• + Petra’s documented record and recent losses do not support a >90% market probability

Cons

• - Limited information on Alexa Karatancheva in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Longshot outcomes are high-variance — bankroll variance and match-specific factors (e.g., injury, conditions) not documented could flip result

Details

The market is pricing Petra Konjikusic at 1.07 (implied win probability ~93.5%), which is extremely high compared with her documented performance: a 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) over the provided career span and recent losses in early September. There is no evidence in the research that Petra is in dominant form or has a surface/venue advantage that would justify a ~93% market probability. Given Petra's poor win-rate and recent results, we estimate Alexa Karatancheva's true chance to win is materially higher than the market-implied 12.5% for the 8.0 price. Using a conservative estimate that Alexa has a 35.0% chance to win, the expected value on Alexa at the current decimal price 8.0 is EV = 0.35 * 8.0 - 1 = 1.80 (180% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price to break even at our probability is 1 / 0.35 = 2.857, well below the available 8.0, indicating strong value on the home underdog. We used the provided current moneyline for Alexa (8.0) to calculate EV.

Key factors

• • Market implies Petra win probability (~93.5%) that conflicts with her documented 10-21 record (~32% win rate)
• • Recent form for Petra shows recent losses (early September), suggesting vulnerability rather than dominance
• • Current price of 8.0 on Alexa offers a large discrepancy versus our estimated true probability