Alexander Kotzen vs Azariah Rusher

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Kotzen: ~88.5%; our estimate: 78%.
• • Required fair odds for Kotzen based on our estimate: ~1.282; current 1.13 offers negative EV.

Pros

• + Kotzen has more professional match experience and a better record than Rusher.
• + No reported injuries or conditions that would alter the matchup from available data.

Cons

• - Both players have small sample sizes, increasing model uncertainty.
• - The market heavily favors Kotzen, leaving little to no margin for value at current odds.

Details

The market prices Alexander Kotzen at 1.13 (implied win probability ~88.5%). Our assessment based on the provided profiles: Kotzen has substantially more match exposure (10 matches, 5-5) versus Azariah Rusher (2 matches, 0-2). Surface exposure is comparable for both (clay and hard) and there are no injury notes, but sample sizes are small for both players. Conservatively we estimate Kotzen's true win probability at 78.0% (0.78). That implies fair odds of ~1.282. At the current market decimal odds of 1.13 the expected ROI would be negative (EV = 0.78 * 1.13 - 1 ≈ -0.119), so there is no value to back Kotzen at the quoted price. The away price (5.6) would require an estimated true probability of ~17.9% or greater to be +EV; given Rusher's 0-2 record and very limited data we do not assign anywhere near that chance. Therefore we recommend no bet at these prices.

Key factors

• • Kotzen has far more match experience (10 matches) and a winning baseline record (5-5) versus Rusher's 2 matches (0-2).
• • Both players have appearances on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage emerges from the provided data.
• • Market implies ~88.5% for Kotzen; our conservative model estimates ~78%, so the market looks overpriced for Kotzen at 1.13.