Alexander Kotzen vs Mohammad Alkotop

Highlights

• • Implied home win probability (1.12) ~89.3%; our estimate ~85%
• • At our estimate neither side produces positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + Kotzen's broader match experience and balanced surface exposure
• + Alkotop's small sample increases uncertainty in his favoring

Cons

• - Limited available data overall — both players have few pro matches
• - Recent form for Kotzen includes recent losses; uncertainty remains

Details

The market heavily favors Alexander Kotzen at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%) while Mohammad Alkotop is priced at 5.8 (implied ~17.2%). Based on available data, we estimate Kotzen's true win probability near 85%: he has a larger match sample, a 5-5 pro record across clay and hard, and is more established than Alkotop (1-3 in a very small sample on hard). Alkotop's limited results and short career profile make a realistic upset probability closer to ~15%, not the ~17.2% required by the book to make the 5.8 line fair. At our 85% estimate the home price (1.12) still yields negative EV (p*1.12 - 1 = -0.048), and the away price (5.8) is also negative against our estimate for the underdog. Therefore no side shows positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Kotzen has a larger match sample and more wins across surfaces (hard and clay)
• • Alkotop's pro experience is minimal (4 matches) with a weak 1-3 record
• • Current market price heavily favors the home; vig leaves little room for value