Alexander Vasilev vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Alexander Vasilev at 2.75: our conservative 40% win estimate gives a positive EV of +0.10 per unit staked and a fair price near 2.50.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Vasilev is ~36.4%; we estimate ~40%
- • Positive EV at current 2.75 price (EV = +0.10)
Pros
- + Vasilev's recent results and win-loss balance justify a higher true probability than the market implies
- + Price of 2.75 offers a clear cushion vs our required 2.50 fair odds
Cons
- - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head data increase uncertainty
- - Ruusuvuori's higher-level experience could be understated in simple win-loss comparisons
Details
We see a clear pricing edge on Alexander Vasilev at 2.75. The market makes Emil Ruusuvuori a strong favorite, but the underlying research shows both players have similar win totals this year and Ruusuvuori carries a worse overall record (6-10 vs Vasilev 6-6). Ruusuvuori's recent results include a straight loss at a high-level event (US Open), indicating form volatility. Vasilev has recent match wins on clay and a tighter win-loss balance, suggesting his true chance is higher than the implied 36.4% priced by the market. Conservatively valuing Vasilev at a 40.0% win probability yields a required fair price of 2.50 decimal odds; the offered 2.75 therefore provides positive expected value. We account for limited sample sizes and possible surface/venue effects, so we keep the true probability conservative while still showing a meaningful edge.
Key factors
- • Vasilev has a better win-loss balance (6-6) versus Ruusuvuori (6-10) in the provided samples
- • Ruusuvuori shows recent high-level loss (US Open) and inconsistent form
- • Current market price (2.75) underestimates Vasilev relative to our conservative 40% win probability