Highlights

• • Market implies ~81.7% for Basing; our estimate is 78.0%
• • Current price (1.224) produces a negative EV (~-4.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Basing’s recorded form (18-6) supports favorite status
• + Hard-court experience in the research aligns with likely surface strengths

Cons

• - Available market price is too short to yield positive EV
• - Insufficient data on Alexander Chang and absence of H2H reduces confidence

Details

We compare the market price to our calculated fair chance for Max Basing. The book gives Basing 1.224 (implied probability 81.7%). From the available research Basing has a strong short career record (18-6) and has played mainly on hard courts, which supports him being the favorite. However, our conservative true-win estimate for Basing is 78.0% (0.78) because there is limited information on opponent Alexander Chang, no H2H, and some recent match detail ambiguity in the record. At p=0.78 the minimum decimal price that offers positive EV is 1.282, which is higher than the current 1.224. Using the current quoted away price (1.224) gives negative expected value: EV = 0.78 * 1.224 - 1 = -0.045 (≈ -4.5% ROI). Therefore there is no value at the current market price and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Max Basing strong recorded form in provided research (18-6)
• • Research indicates Basing has predominantly played on hard courts
• • Very limited or no reliable data on Alexander Chang and no H2H info
• • Market-implied probability (81.7% at 1.224) exceeds our conservative estimate