Highlights

• • Kotzen: 10 matches, 5-5 record across clay and hard
• • No opponent data or current moneyline provided — market comparison not possible

Pros

• + Has experience on both clay and hard surfaces
• + Win rate near 50% suggests competitiveness in similarly ranked events

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses and limited match volume
• - High uncertainty due to lack of opponent and market information

Details

We base our assessment solely on the provided player profile for Alexander Kotzen. Kotzen has a very small sample (10 matches, 5-5) with mixed results on clay and hard and two recent listed losses through mid-2025, indicating inconsistent form. No information was provided about Justin Lyons (opponent), head-to-head, match context, or any market prices for the moneyline, so we cannot compare market odds to a precise model edge. Given Kotzen's even overall record but recent losses and limited data, we estimate his true win probability slightly below coin-flip. To represent value, the market would need to offer decimal odds above our computed threshold (see min_required_decimal_odds). Because no current moneyline prices are available in the research, we do not recommend a side now; we would only back Kotzen if available decimal odds exceed the threshold implied by our probability. All probability and threshold values are conservative estimates reflecting high uncertainty from limited data and lack of opponent information.

Key factors

• • Very small sample size (10 career matches) makes estimates noisy
• • Kotzen is 5-5 overall with recent listed losses, indicating inconsistent form
• • No data provided on the opponent (Justin Lyons), head-to-head, or market odds