Alexander Kotzen vs Youcef Rihane
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the away side at 2.90 given Kotzen's limited, inconsistent form; estimated true chance for Rihane of ~38% yields ~+10% EV.
Highlights
- • Kotzen priced at implied ~73% despite mixed 5-5 record
- • Conservative 38% estimate for Rihane produces positive EV at 2.90
Pros
- + Current away price (2.90) is high enough to offer positive EV under conservative true-probability assumptions
- + Kotzen's recent losses weaken the favorite case and support underdog value
Cons
- - Very limited data set and no supplied profile for Rihane — higher model uncertainty
- - Short-format tennis outcomes are volatile; even positive EV bets can lose in the short term
Details
The market prices Alexander Kotzen as a strong favorite at 1.37 (implied ~73%). Our read of the supplied research shows Kotzen with a very small sample (10 career matches, 5-5) and clear recent weakness (losses in his most recent recorded events), which argues the market may be overestimating his win probability. We have no independent performance data for Youcef Rihane in the provided research, which increases model uncertainty but also creates an opportunity if the favorite pricing is inflated. Conservatively, we estimate Rihane's true win probability at 38%. At the available away price of 2.90 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 2.90 - 1 = +0.102, or +10.2% ROI). To justify backing Kotzen at 1.37 the true probability would need to be >72.99%, which is not supported by Kotzen's limited 5-5 record and recent losses. Therefore we recommend the away side as value at current prices while acknowledging increased variance from limited information.
Key factors
- • Kotzen has a small sample (10 matches) and a 5-5 record — form is inconsistent
- • Recent recorded results show consecutive losses, suggesting current market favoritism may be over-optimistic
- • Lack of data on Rihane increases uncertainty but also implies the market favorite may be over-priced