Alexander Ritschard vs Gianluca Cadenasso

Highlights

• • Cadenasso has a stronger recent win-loss profile and recent clay results
• • Current away price (3.0) offers value relative to our 40% probability estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available odds (EV = +0.20 per unit)
• + Form and match outcomes favor the away player based on provided data

Cons

• - Data sample and match-level detail are limited; some recent match stats for Ritschard show variability
• - No direct head-to-head provided and tennis outcomes can be volatile on Challenger level

Details

We view Gianluca Cadenasso as undervalued by the market. The market prices Alexander Ritschard at 1.36 (implied ~73.5%); our review of the provided player data shows Ritschard with a sub-.500 recent record (13-16) and poor recent match stats, while Cadenasso has a stronger overall record (26-15) and recent wins on clay qualifiers. Both players have clay experience, but the form and win-rate edge goes to Cadenasso. Given those factors we estimate Cadenasso's true win probability materially above the market-implied 33.3% for the 3.0 moneyline, producing positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Recent form: Cadenasso's recent results and higher win rate (26-15) vs Ritschard's 13-16
• • Surface alignment: Both have clay experience, Cadenasso showing recent success on clay qualifiers
• • Market discrepancy: Home favorite price (1.36) implies a probability inconsistent with on-record form and recent match stats