Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (61.7%) is below our estimated 68% true win chance
• • Estimated EV ≈ +0.102 units (≈10.2% ROI) at current odds

Pros

• + Positive expected value relative to the market price
• + Gentzsch’s clearer recent success on clay and larger sample size supports the probability edge

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and deeper context available in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Challenger-level matches can be volatile; single-match variance remains substantial

Details

We assess clear value on Tom Gentzsch at the current away price (1.62). The market-implied probability for Gentzsch is 61.7% (1/1.62). Based on the research, Gentzsch has a much stronger recent record (55-26 across 82 matches) and is showing recent successful results on clay at Challenger events, while Alexander Ritschard has a weaker overall record (13-16 across 29 matches) and recent losses on clay. Given surface alignment (Biella is a clay Challenger) and the contrasting recent form and match experience, we estimate Gentzsch's true win probability at 68%. That creates positive expectation versus the market: EV = 0.68 * 1.62 - 1 = 0.102 (about +10.2% ROI per unit). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current price.

Key factors

• • Recent form: Gentzsch shows better recent results on clay at Challenger level
• • Overall experience and volume: Gentzsch has far more matches (82 vs 29) and a stronger win-loss record
• • Market pricing: current odds imply ~61.7% win chance, below our 68% estimate, creating value