Alexander Vasilev vs Otto Virtanen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see slight value on Alexander Vasilev at 2.80 — our 38% win estimate produces a ~6.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market implies Virtanen is ~71% to win, which seems too high given his 24-26 record
- • Vasilev's limited sample can be mispriced; 2.80 offers a favorable break-even threshold
Pros
- + Current price 2.80 exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.632) for Vasilev
- + Virtanen's record doesn't indicate clear dominance despite favoritism
Cons
- - Vasilev has a very small professional sample (12 matches), increasing outcome variance
- - Research shows limited recent data and no H2H, raising uncertainty in our probability estimate
Details
We believe the market price (Away 1.40 implied ~71%) overstates Otto Virtanen's edge given the research. Virtanen has a larger sample (50 matches, 24-26) but a losing record overall and recent mixed results, while Alexander Vasilev (12 matches, 6-6) shows limited sample noise that can be undervalued by markets. Both players have experience on hard and clay; there is no clear surface advantage reported. The current home decimal 2.80 implies a win probability of 35.7%. We estimate Vasilev's true win probability at 38% based on relative records, recency parity, and the market's heavy favoritism toward Virtanen, producing positive expected value at the quoted 2.80 price.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors Virtanen (1.40) implying ~71% — likely overstated vs available form data
- • Virtanen has more matches (50) but a near-.500 record (24-26), not dominant
- • Vasilev small sample (12 matches, 6-6) introduces uncertainty and potential market undervaluation