Highlights

• • Binda has a much larger career sample and higher win rate
• • Current odds (1.395) are slightly generous relative to our 74% estimate

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate advantage for Binda
• + Current odds exceed our minimum fair price (1.351), yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Neither player has recorded grass experience — increases upset risk
• - Both have recent losses on hard courts, indicating form is not dominant

Details

We view Alexandr Binda as the clear favorite given a much larger match sample (105 matches, 70-35) versus Aoran Wang's limited record (21 matches, 8-13). Binda's overall win rate and greater experience at Challenger-level events imply a meaningful edge even though both players lack documented grass experience, which raises variance. The market decimal price for Binda is 1.395 (implied probability ~71.8%). We estimate Binda's true win probability at 74.0% based on the experience and win-rate differential and discounting some uncertainty for the grass surface and recent mixed results. At that probability the current price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.74*1.395 - 1 = 0.0323, ~3.23% ROI). Because the min fair decimal price given our probability is 1.351 and the market is 1.395, we detect value and recommend the favorite (home). We note elevated uncertainty due to no grass history for either player and some recent losses for both, so the edge is modest rather than large.

Key factors

• • Substantial experience and higher career win rate for Binda (70-35 vs 8-13)
• • Both players lack recorded grass match history, increasing variance and uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (~71.8%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (74.0%), creating a small positive EV