Highlights

• • Book implied probability for Binda (~67.5%) appears too high given his lack of documented grass play
• • Zhu at 2.60 requires only ~38.5% true win chance to be profitable; we estimate ~42%

Pros

• + Zhu has grass-court experience while Binda's recorded surfaces exclude grass
• + Current price (2.60) offers a healthy cushion above our fair odds threshold (2.381)

Cons

• - Overall win-loss record favors Binda and he has many more matches in the provided data
• - Limited direct H2H or recent head-to-head context in the supplied research increases uncertainty

Details

We see value on Evan Zhu at 2.60. The market prices Alexandr Binda as a strong favorite (implied ~67.5%), but the matchup specifics reduce that edge: Binda's documented play has been on clay and hard courts with no recorded grass experience in the provided profile, while Zhu has history on grass and recent grass events on his resume. Binda's recent results in the provided sample also include losses on hard courts, limiting a confidence premium from form alone. Balancing Binda's superior overall win-loss record against Zhu's grass experience and the inflated market probability for the home player, we estimate Zhu's true win probability around 42%, which yields a positive expected value at the quoted 2.60 (EV = 0.42*2.60 - 1 = +0.092).

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Zhu has recorded grass experience while Binda's profile lists clay/hard only
• • Recent form: Binda has recent losses in the supplied results; Zhu has mixed recent results including grass events
• • Market distortion: bookmaker makes Binda a ~67.5% favorite which appears overstated given surface mismatch and profiles