Highlights

• • Research shows both players with similar records (10-21) and surfaces played
• • Home needs odds >3.333 to be +EV; current 4.7 comfortably exceeds that

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied market probability and available player data
• + Current decimal price (4.7) gives a strong positive EV versus our conservative estimate

Cons

• - Research is limited and partly duplicated; missing info (injuries, H2H, local conditions) could change the edge
• - Value bet relies on market mispricing; if unseen factors justify the favorite, the bet could be poor

Details

We find the market price (Away 1.17 / Home 4.7) inconsistent with the available data. The provided player profiles show near-identical career spans, records (10-21), recent results and surface exposure, giving no clear justification for an >85% win probability for the away player implied by 1.17. Absent any injury, head-to-head, or surface advantage evidence in the research, we assign a conservative true win probability of 30% to the home player. At that probability the fair decimal threshold (1/p) is 3.333; the current home price of 4.7 therefore presents positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = 0.30 * 4.7 - 1 = 0.41 (41% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We note uncertainty due to sparse and duplicated profile data, but the magnitude of the market mismatch justifies recommending the home underdog as a value bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form in provided data
• • Market implies an >85% win chance for the away player without supporting evidence
• • Current home price (4.7) exceeds the fair threshold for our conservative probability estimate