Highlights

• • Market-implied away win probability ≈ 76% appears overstated given symmetric player profiles
• • Home price 3.21 exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.632) and yields EV ≈ +0.22 per unit

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current market price if our probability estimate is correct
• + Research does not show a clear superiority for the favorite, supporting a closer true match-up

Cons

• - Research is sparse and largely identical for both players; uncertainty around surface, injuries and H2H is high
• - If unobserved factors (form, fitness, surface preference) favor the favorite, the value disappears

Details

The market heavily favors Antonia Stoyanov at 1.316 (≈76.0% implied) despite the research showing nearly identical career profiles and recent form for both players. Both player profiles list the same long career span and similar aggregate records with recent losses, providing no strong evidence that Stoyanov should be a three-to-one favorite. We therefore judge the matchup to be much closer than the market implies and estimate Alexandra Vasilyeva's win probability materially higher than the 31% market-implied chance (3.21). Using a conservative true win probability of 38% for Vasilyeva, the required fair decimal price would be 2.632; the current available price of 3.21 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.38*3.21 - 1 ≈ 0.22). Given the limited and symmetric data in the research (no clear H2H edge, no surface/injury differentials provided), this is a value play but with medium uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Profiles show nearly identical career records and spans, indicating a close baseline ability match
• • Both players have recent losses in the provided recent-match snapshots—no clear momentum edge
• • Market shows a strong favorite (away) with probable bookmaker margin; price divergence suggests possible value on home