Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability: 64.0% (1.562)
• • Our estimated true home probability: ~54% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Home player is the market favorite (shorter odds reflect perceived edge)
• + Both players are experienced on the match surfaces, reducing unexpected surface risk

Cons

• - Players have nearly identical records and recent form, providing no clear edge for the favorite
• - Current price for home (1.562) is well below the breakeven odds required for value (1.852)

Details

We assess the market favorite (Alexandra Vasilyeva at 1.562, implied 64.0%) as over-priced relative to the available evidence. Both players present nearly identical career records (10-21), identical surface experience (clay and hard) and similarly poor recent form with recent losses, so there is no clear performance edge that justifies a ~64% win probability for the home player. Given the parity in profiles and lack of head-to-head or injury advantages in the provided research, we estimate the true win probability for the home player closer to ~54%. At that probability the bet at 1.562 produces a negative expectation (0.54 * 1.562 - 1 = -0.157), so we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices. For value to exist on the home side the available odds would need to be ≥ 1.852 given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surface experience (both 10-21; clay/hard)
• • Both players show recent losses and no evident form advantage
• • Market implies a much higher probability for the home player (64%) than our estimate (~54%)