Highlights

• • Aleshchev's observed win-rate (~18.8%) implies he should not be a heavy favorite
• • Required odds to back Aleshchev profitably are ~5.556 versus available 1.157

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market price and documented player form
• + Conservative stance avoids taking on a large negative EV

Cons

• - We lack any researched profile for Joris Hoogland, which limits the depth of the matchup assessment
• - If the market has inside information (e.g., Aleshchev fitness, draw advantages), our model may understate the favorite

Details

We see a market pricing Alexey Aleshchev as a heavy favorite at 1.157 (implied ~86%). The only researched data we have (Aleshchev) shows a 3-13 career record (≈18.8% win-rate) with poor recent form on hard courts. With no information on Joris Hoogland in the research set, we must rely on Aleshchev's measurable baseline instead of the market. Using Aleshchev's observable win rate (~0.18) as our estimated true probability, the current market price for the home side offers large negative expected value (EV = 0.18 * 1.157 - 1 ≈ -0.792). To have a positive expectation backing Aleshchev we would need decimal odds ≈ 5.556, far above the available 1.157. Given the asymmetric information (no opponent profile) and Aleshchev's weak record, we cannot justify taking the market favorite; therefore we recommend no bet unless substantially better odds are offered on either side.

Key factors

• • Aleshchev career record 3-13 (≈18.8% win rate) across 16 matches
• • Recent form shown in research indicates multiple losses on hard courts
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.157, creating a large disconnect from observed performance