Highlights

• • Current odds imply 28.4% for Cerny; we estimate ~31% true chance
• • Min fair odds for value are ~3.226; current 3.52 exceeds that

Pros

• + Underdog offers positive expected value at current market price
• + Cerny's experience on faster surfaces (carpet) may adapt well to grass

Cons

• - Both players have limited or mixed grass-specific data, increasing outcome variance
• - Vatutin’s superior overall record and favored status could still reflect intangible edges

Details

The market prices Alexey Vatutin very short at 1.287 (implied 77.7%) and Matyas Cerny at 3.52 (implied 28.4%). From the profiles provided, Vatutin has the better overall win rate (≈56.7% career) but most of his recent activity and strengths appear on clay/hard; Cerny has experience on faster surfaces (carpet) which can translate better to grass than a clay-oriented profile. Both players show mixed recent form, but the market appears to overprice Vatutin given the surface uncertainty and Cerny’s faster-surface background. We estimate Cerny’s true chance at ~31.0%, which is above the market-implied 28.4%, producing positive expected value at the current 3.52 price. Calculation: estimated_true_probability 0.31 -> min required decimal odds 1/0.31 = 3.226; current away odds 3.52 > 3.226, so EV = 0.31 * 3.52 - 1 ≈ 0.091 (9.1% ROI). We acknowledge limited direct grass data and some noise in recent results, so this is a medium-risk value play rather than a high-confidence pick.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home 77.7% vs away 28.4%
• • Surface fit: Cerny has faster-surface (carpet) background which may transfer to grass better than Vatutin's clay-heavy profile
• • Recent form is mixed for both; limited direct grass evidence increases volatility/value in underdog