Highlights

• • Current price requires >83.8% true win probability to be +EV for Vatutin
• • Our assessment: Vatutin ~72% — insufficient to overcome market price

Pros

• + Vatutin has the stronger overall career record and is the market favorite
• + Match is in qualifiers where favorites often advance

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass results in the provided data, increasing uncertainty
• - Recent match snippets show losses for both players; form is not demonstrably dominant for Vatutin

Details

We view the market price (Alexey Vatutin 1.193, implied win ~83.8%) as overstating the probability of a Vatutin win. Research shows both players have most of their recent activity on clay/hard with little or no grass track record provided; that increases uncertainty and lowers our confidence above the ~84% threshold required at current odds. Vatutin has the stronger overall record (38-29 vs 30-28) and is the logical favorite, but recent results in the provided snippets show losses and do not demonstrate dominant form. Given the surface mismatch (grass) and limited grass-specific data, we estimate Vatutin's true win probability at ~72% — clearly below the ~83.8% implied by the 1.193 price — so there is no positive expected value at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~83.8% for Vatutin; we estimate ~72% — market overprices the favorite
• • Both players' recent recorded matches are on clay/hard; lack of grass form raises uncertainty
• • Vatutin has a better overall record but recent losses reduce confidence that he is >84% to win