Alexey Aleshchev vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Highlights

• • Away is heavy favorite with clear experience advantage
• • Current price (1.12) is above our fair price threshold (1.075)

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at the listed price
• + Large experience and win-rate advantage on relevant surface

Cons

• - Edge magnitude is modest (≈4.2% ROI) and sensitive to probability estimate
• - Short sample for the home player could hide variance; upsets still possible in tennis

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong (1.12 => ~89.3%) to our assessment based on the provided profiles: Mitsuki is a considerably more experienced and successful player on hard courts (31-29 across 60 matches) while Alexey Aleshchev has a very limited and poor record (3-13 across 16 matches) and recent results indicate weak form. Both players have hard-court experience, so surface doesn’t reduce the gap. With no injury flags in the provided research and a large discrepancy in career volume and results, we estimate Mitsuki’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 89.3%, so the 1.12 price offers positive expected value. We set our estimated_true_probability at 0.93, which yields a minimum fair decimal price of 1.075; the current 1.12 therefore returns EV = 0.93*1.12 - 1 = 0.0416 (≈4.16% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We are recommending the away side only because expected_value > 0 at the current price.

Key factors

• • Clear disparity in career results and match volume (31-29 vs 3-13)
• • Both have hard-court experience, so surface favors the higher-volume player
• • No injury information provided and recent form favors the away player