Alexey Vatutin vs Arthur Reymond
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the market overprices Vatutin (1.342) relative to our 68% win estimate; we would only back him at ≥1.471.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Vatutin: ~74.5% (1.342)
- • Our estimated probability: 68% → break-even odds 1.471
Pros
- + Vatutin has the stronger overall win-loss record among the two
- + Both players show shaky recent form, limiting the chance of a big upset but also limiting confidence in an oversized market gap
Cons
- - Vatutin appears to have limited recent grass exposure compared with Reymond
- - Current market price demands a >74% probability; our view is notably lower
Details
We estimate Alexey Vatutin's true win probability at ~68% against Arthur Reymond on grass. The market price (1.342 decimals) implies ~74.5% which is meaningfully higher than our view, so the current favourite price does not offer value. Key drivers: Reymond has recorded grass experience while Vatutin's listed recent match activity is on clay/hard, which reduces our edge relative to the market's heavy favourite pricing; overall career win rates slightly favour Vatutin but not enough to justify the market-implied 74.5% probability. At our probability (0.68) the break-even decimal odds are ~1.471, so we would only back Vatutin if available at >=1.471. Betting at the current 1.342 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.68*1.342 - 1 ≈ -0.087), so we advise no bet.
Key factors
- • Surface: grass; Reymond has grass listed in his profile while Vatutin's recent matches are on clay/hard
- • Form: both players show recent losses in challengers, limiting confidence in a large edge
- • Market pricing: current favourite price implies ~74.5% which exceeds our estimated true probability