Alexey Vatutin vs Louis Tessa

Highlights

• • Vatutin: broader experience and better win-loss record
• • Current price (1.143) is marginally higher than our min required odds (1.111) for a 90% win probability

Pros

• + Clear experience and results gap favoring Vatutin
• + Odds provide a positive expected value even after conservative turf uncertainty

Cons

• - No grass-specific data for either player in the provided research
• - Edge is small; upsets are possible and volatility exists on qualifying surfaces

Details

We see a clear structural advantage for Alexey Vatutin: substantially more match volume (69 matches) and a stronger career win rate (39-30) compared with Louis Tessa (24 matches, 10-14). Neither profile shows grass-specific experience in the provided data, but Vatutin's higher-level experience and recent Challenger-level activity make him the more reliable qualifier entrant. The market price (1.143 decimal, implied ~87.5%) is tight but slightly underestimates Vatutin's edge in our view. We estimate Vatutin's true win probability at ~90%; at the current price of 1.143 this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.9 * 1.143 - 1 = 0.0287, or ~2.9% ROI). Given the limited grass data, our estimate is conservative; the current odds still provide value versus our assessed probability.

Key factors

• • Vatutin significantly more match experience and higher-level results (69 matches, 39-30)
• • Tessa has far fewer matches and weaker career win-rate (24 matches, 10-14)
• • No grass history for either in the provided data, but Vatutin's Challenger experience is a plus
• • Market odds imply ~87.5% for Vatutin; our model uses a 90% estimate, creating value