Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Tirante (~81.5%) exceeds our estimate (~75%).
• • Vatutin appears disadvantaged on grass and is unlikely to justify a 4.26 price.

Pros

• + Tirante is the safer match favorite based on form and surface history.
• + Bookmaker price correctly favors the stronger, grass-capable player.

Cons

• - Favorite price (1.227) offers negative expected value versus our probability estimate.
• - Underdog price (4.26) does not represent enough true upset probability given surface and recent form.

Details

We estimate Thiago Agustin Tirante is the clear favorite on grass given his stronger overall record and documented grass experience, while Alexey Vatutin has little evidence of recent success on grass and has struggled in recent matches on clay and hard. The market price (Tirante 1.227) implies ~81.5% win probability; our estimated true probability for Tirante is ~75%, which makes the current price overpriced by the book and yields negative expected value. Conversely, Vatutin at 4.26 (implied ~23.5%) would require a true win probability of ~23.5% to be fair; we estimate Vatutin's true chance below that on grass, so his price does not offer value either. Therefore we recommend no bet — the market favorite is too short and the underdog is not undervalued enough to justify backing.

Key factors

• • Tirante has a stronger overall record and explicit grass experience
• • Vatutin shows limited recent success and little evidence of grass form
• • Market heavily favors Tirante (implied ~81.5%), which exceeds our estimated win probability